Author: Joel Schofer, MD, MBA, CPE
The 90% CAPT Promotion Opportunity and a Promotion Board Math Review
People are very excited about the 90% promotion opportunity for the recently concluded FY19 Staff Corps O6 promotion board. But it is easy to misinterpret this opportunity. It does not mean that 90% of CDRs will be selected for CAPT. Let’s review promotion board math…
Where Does the Promotion Opportunity Come From?
The short answer is from manpower projections. How many physicians are getting out or retiring? What is the current Medical Corps manning level for that rank? What are future needs anticipated to be? What is the size of the promotion zone?
The answers to all of these questions determines the promotion opportunity and guides PERS and BUMED when they are making their decision.
As you can see here, the promotion opportunity varies from year-to-year:
| FY13 | FY14 | FY15 | FY16 | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | |
| LCDR | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| CDR | 80% | 80% | 70% | 70% | 65% | 75% | |
| CAPT | 60% | 60% | 60% | 50% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
Historical promotion opportunities for FY13-19.
But as you can see here, the percentage who are promoted from the in zone group is substantially lower:
| FY13 | FY14 | FY15 | FY16 | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | |
| LCDR | 97% | 89% | 90% | 93% | 88% | 85% | |
| CDR | 58% | 66% | 49% | 53% | 44% | 40% | |
| CAPT | 55% | 43% | 47% | 39% | 34% | 37% |
Historical percentage of in-zone candidates selected for promotion for FY13-18.
FY19 O6 Promotion Board Math
The FY19 lineal list shows that there are 74 CDRs in the FY19 zone. If you take the 90% promotion opportunity and multiply it by 74, you’ll see that they could have promoted 67 CDRs to O6 during the board:
90% opportunity X 74 people in zone = 66.6 (rounded up to 67) people they can pick for O6
These 67, though, could have been picked from CDRs who were below zone, in zone, or above zone. Usually, there is one person picked from below zone, and a number from the in zone and above zone categories. The exact mix won’t be known until they release the results in May.
The Bottom Line
I’d much rather have a 90% promotion opportunity for O6 than the 50% in FY16, but the actual percentage of CDRs who were picked from this year’s zone won’t be known until May. If I had to guess, the 90% promotion opportunity will lead to approximately 40% of those in zone being selected, but my guess could be way off. We’ll just have to wait and see.
FY19 O6 Promotion Board Members Released
PERS always releases the members of the promotion boards. They used to do it as soon as the board started, but after the E-9 board had to be cancelled last year they now do it after the board is over. Here are the members of this year’s O6 board:
90% Medical Corps Promotion Opportunity for FY19 O6 Board
Here is the FY19 O6 Promotion Board Convening Order, which was just released on this website. On page 2 you can see that the promotion opportunity is 90% for Medical Corps, the highest it has ever been in recent times:
Historical Promotion Opportunities for Medical Corps
| FY13 | FY14 | FY15 | FY16 | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | |
| LCDR | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| CDR | 80% | 80% | 70% | 70% | 65% | 75% | |
| CAPT | 60% | 60% | 60% | 50% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
This Job Will Probably Make You a Captain
Whenever a position is advertised a second time, that usually means there is little qualified interest in the position. I’m not saying everyone would like this job or be good at it, but this position has been advertised a second time by BUMED:
BUMED Policy and Practice Officer
It is great prep for anyone looking to do Executive Medicine and is a high-level position at BUMED, which has historically led to promotion to O6. If you’re an O5, I’d look at this position and consider applying.
End-of-the-Month Financial Post Summary
Here is the summary of my financial writings this month:
Another Simple Way to Get Rich in the Military – Become a Super Saver
Blended Retirement System Opt-In Period Now Open
Federal Student Loan Benefits for Military Members
File Taxes for Free with MilTax
How to Easily Figure Out the Dollar Value of Staying In vs Getting Out of the Military
Opting into the Blended Retirement System Video
The Blended Retirement System Lump Sum – Probably Not a Good Idea
The Easiest Way to Figure Out Your Optimal TSP Investment Plan
What is DOPMA and Why Should You Care?
DOPMA stands for Defense Officer Personnel Management Act. It has been the guideline for officer personnel management since December 1980. It was designed to help modernize management practices and correct problems with officer management that emerged in the post-World War II era. Its notable achievements include:
- Creating uniform promotion rates.
- Standardizing career lengths across the services.
- Regulating the number of senior officers as a proportion of the force.
- Creating reasonable and predictable expectations regarding when an officer would be eligible for promotion.
DOPMA has been criticized for creating a system with high turnover rates, frequent moves, and shorter military careers. It is often referred to as “up or out” and is the reason why LCDRs can only stay 20 years, CDRs 28 years, and CAPTs for 30 years.
In addition, the Medical and Dental Corps are “DOPMA exempt” when it comes to our promotion zones. This is why it is easy to predict when Medical Corps officers are going to be in zone. Our promotion zones are not reliant on how many senior physicians left the service.
The Nurse and Medical Service Corps are not DOPMA exempt. Their promotion zones vary from year to year depending on how many senior nurses or MSCs get out of the service.
For example, a Commander MSC friend of mine was stuck waiting for promotion to O6 until one of the CAPTs in his community retired. That would not happen to a physician or dentist because we are DOPMA exempt.
DOPMA has been under fire recently and is getting some attention toward revising it, which you can read about here:
The Defense Officer Personnel Management Act faces scrutiny in 2018
Up-or-out rules get new scrutiny from Congress
10 Years of O5 and O6 Promotion Rates by Specialty
The Non-Surgical Detailer and I are working on a research project to take a deep dive on how all the various career factors affect the ability of physicians to promote. One of the first products of our preliminary research is a spreadsheet that shows 10 years of promotion rates to O5 and O6 by specialty. I’m sure the MCCareer.org audience would enjoy checking it out, so here it is:
CAPT and CDR (2100) Selection Rate by Specialty
There are multiple tabs, one for each fiscal year as well as the first tab, which is an overview.
FY18 Special Pay NAVADMIN Released
The FY18 NAVADMIN has been released, and the NAVADMIN and the FY18 Pay Guidance for each Corps is attached here:
Medical Corps Special Pay Guidance
Officers can now submit for special pays through your command’s Special Pay coordinator with an effective date of 1 Oct 2017, until now, if they meet the eligibility requirements. Remember the request and endorsement cannot be dated earlier than the release date of the NAVADMIN, which is 25 Jan 2018.
Call for Navy and Marine Corps Attendance at the 21st Century Battlefield Medical Care Symposium
UNCLASSIFIED ROUTINE R 241240Z JAN 18 FM CNO WASHINGTON DC TO NAVADMIN INFO CNO WASHINGTON DC//DNS// BT UNCLAS NAVADMIN 011/18 PASS TO OFFICE CODES: INFO CNO WASHINGTON DC//N093// MSGID/GENADMIN/CNO WASHINGTON DC/DNS// SUBJ/CALL FOR NAVY AND MARINE CORPS ATTENDANCE AT THE 21ST CENTURY BATTLEFIELD MEDICAL CARE SYMPOSIUM// POC/LCDR KATHLEEN DAGHER/BUMED/M9/DSN: 761-1648/TEL: (703) 681-1648/ EMAIL: KATHLEEN.R.DAGHER.MIL(AT)MAIL.MIL// RMKS/1. On 14 - 15 February 2018, the Deputy Commandant, Installations and Logistics, the Medical Officer of the Marine Corps, and the Surgeon General of the United States Navy will host the 21st Century Battlefield Medical Care Symposium at the Gray Research Center in Quantico, VA. This event will review lessons learned in Navy and Joint Medicine from Operation IRAQI FREEDOM and Operation ENDURING FREEDOM and explore promising new ideas and technology to improve the treatment and movement of casualties in a future distributed operational environment and extend the Golden Hour. 2. Day one of the event will feature military and civilian speakers, as well as panels, discussing battlefield medicine lessons learned from recent operations. There will be representation from across the Department of Defense (DoD) and the U.S. Government with experts including providers, logisticians, planners, corpsmen, and medics. Day two will focus on emerging medical technology and patient care. A range of panels and presentations will provide a view into the future of medicine. Speakers will include renowned futurists, ground-breaking and innovative physicians, as well as medical providers from a variety of fields. 3. Anticipated attendees include Naval, DoD, and other Service medical professionals, industry representatives, civilian medical professionals, and academics. There will be a range of emerging technology displays throughout the two days of the symposium to highlight and explain innovative approaches to medicine and technology as applied to future battlefield care. 4. Marines and Sailors in commands and specialties where battlefield medical care is a critical consideration in their mission are encouraged to take advantage of this opportunity to learn more about the future of battlefield medical care in the 21st century by attending the symposium. 5. Additional information including registration details can be found at: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/21st-century-battlefield-medical-care-symposium-registration-40159611479?aff=eac2 6. Released by Vice Admiral K. M. Donegan, Director Navy Staff.// BT #0001 NNNN UNCLASSIFIED//
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