MCCareer.org The Book – Chapter 3 – Career Progression and Promotion Board Math
Introduction
When you start your Naval career, the future is largely a mystery. As you progress is your career, things will crystalize, you’ll become wiser, and you’ll think, “It would have been nice to know all of this in the beginning.”
I’m going to try and tell you what you should have known about career progression and promotion board math from the beginning.
Career Progression
This diagram below demonstrates the typical career progression of a Medical Corps officer who has no prior service. Assuming you are not picked early for promotion, you typically promote every six years. You will become a Lieutenant Commander (LCDR) at approximately 6 years, a Commander (CDR) at 12 years, and a Captain (CAPT) at 18 years. I had no prior service, I have never been promoted early, and this is exactly the timing I experienced in my career.
Along the left are the ranges of promotion opportunity for each rank from fiscal year 2013-2020. In each year, the promotion opportunity for LCDR has been 100%. In theory, if all the Lieutenants are suitable for promotion they can all be promoted to LCDR. When it comes to the promotion opportunities for CDR or CAPT, interpreting them is a touch more difficult because we have to talk about promotion board math.
Promotion Board Math
In Fiscal Year 2019 (FY19), people were very excited about a 90% promotion opportunity for the FY19 Staff Corps O6 promotion board. But it was easy to misinterpret this opportunity. It did not mean that 90% of CDRs were selected for CAPT.
Where Does the Promotion Opportunity Come From?
The short answer is from manpower projections. How many physicians are getting out or retiring? What is the current Medical Corps manning level for that rank? What are future needs anticipated to be? What is the size of the promotion zone? The answers to all of these questions determines the promotion opportunity and guide Navy Personnel Command (NPC) and the Bureau of Medicine and Surgery (BUMED) when they are making their decision.
As you can see here, the promotion opportunity varies from year-to-year:
| FY13 | FY14 | FY15 | FY16 | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | |
| LCDR | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Pending |
| CDR | 80% | 80% | 70% | 70% | 65% | 75% | 85% | 77% |
| CAPT | 60% | 60% | 60% | 50% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 81% |
Historical promotion opportunities for FY13-20.
But as you can see here, the percentage who are promoted from the in zone group is substantially lower:
| FY13 | FY14 | FY15 | FY16 | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | |
| LCDR | 97% | 89% | 90% | 93% | 88% | 85% | 87% | Pending |
| CDR | 58% | 66% | 49% | 53% | 44% | 40% | 52% | 53% |
| CAPT | 55% | 43% | 47% | 39% | 34% | 37% | 41% | 51% |
Historical percentage of in-zone candidates selected for promotion for FY13-20.
Promotion Board Zones
There are three “zones” for promotion – below zone, in zone, and above zone. Medical Corps officers are below zone for two years, in zone for one year, and above zone until they are either selected for promotion or get out of the Navy. A few people are usually picked early or below zone, but most people will not get picked until they are in or above zone.
FY19 O6 Promotion Board Math
In FY19, there were 74 CDRs in zone for promotion. To figure out how many officers can be selected for promotion, you have to multiple the zone size by the promotion opportunity. For example, if you take the 90% promotion opportunity everyone was excited about and multiply it by the zone size of 74, you’ll see that they could have promoted 67 CDRs to CAPT during the board:
90% opportunity X 74 people in zone = 66.6 (rounded up to 67) people they can pick for O6
These 67, though, were picked from CDRs who were below zone, in zone, or above zone. Usually, there is a small number picked from below zone, and a much larger number from the in zone and above zone categories. Here were the results:
As you can see, the 90% promotion opportunity only led to a 41% selection rate for those who were in zone. The remainder came from the below and above zone CDRs.
The Bottom Line on Career Progression
The typical career progression occurs with a promotion every six years, as detailed in the diagram below. The promotion opportunities listed, though, result in a much lower chance of getting picked when you are in zone because the selections come from those below, in, and above zone.
Post-9/11 GI Bill Education Benefits Transfer Deadline Approaching
Here’s a link to this Navy article:
Post-9/11 GI Bill Education Benefits Transfer Deadline Approaching
NDAA 2020: The Latest on TRICARE, Medical Billet Cuts, and More
Here’s a link to this article from MOAA:
NDAA 2020: The Latest on TRICARE, Medical Billet Cuts, and More
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4 Reasons Doctors Don’t Save Enough Money
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Roth versus Tax-Deferred: The Critical Concept of Filling the Brackets
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How to Request Resignation/Separation Via NSIPS
A bunch of people have asked me for a go-by for this, and I didn’t have one, but one of the Detailers sent me this screenshot below to show where you go to start the request. Hard copies of your request are required to be uploaded ONLY if you are requesting a waiver to get out early:
If you don’t have the link, you need to contact the NSIPS Help Desk:
- Toll Free: 877-589-5991
- Comm: 504-697-5442
- DSN: 312-647-5442
- Email: NSIPShelpdesk@navy.mil
- Web: https://gdscnola.sscno.nmci.navy.mil
FY20 Active Duty Staff Corps O5 Promotion List
UNCLASSIFIED//
ROUTINE
R 181355Z JUN 19
FM SECNAV WASHINGTON DC
TO ALNAV
INFO SECNAV WASHINGTON DC
CNO WASHINGTON DC
CMC WASHINGTON DC
BT
UNCLAS
ALNAV 050/19
MSGID/GENADMIN/SECNAV WASHINGTON DC/-/JUN//
SUBJ/FY-20 ACTIVE-DUTY NAVY COMMANDER STAFF CORPS SELECTIONS//
REF/A/DOC/SECNAV/11JAN19//
AMPN/REF A IS THE FY-20 ACTIVE-DUTY NAVY COMMANDER STAFF CORPS PROMOTION
SELECTION BOARD CONVENING ORDER.//
RMKS/1. I am pleased to announce the following Staff Corps Officers on the
Active-Duty list selected for promotion to the permanent grade of Commander.
2. This message is not authority to deliver appointments.
Authority to effect promotion will normally be issued by future NAVADMINs
requiring NAVPERS 1421/7 preparation and forwarding of document to PERS-806.
3. Frocking is not authorized for any officer listed below until specific
authorization is received per SECNAVINST 1420.2B.
4. For proper alphabetical order read from left to right on each line. The
numbers following each name to the right indicate the relative seniority
among selectees within each competitive category.
Note: An (*) by the name indicates the selectee was merit reordered to the
top of the promotion list in accordance with reference (a).
Members are directed to verify their select status via BUPERS Online.
Medical Corps
Ackerman Vincent L 0023 Adams Nehkonti 0089
Amann Christopher J 0035 Bandle Jesse 0088
Barker Matthew D 0009 Bear Jonathan Read 0043
Bedzis Stephanie Marie 0055 Belin Laurence Justin 0069
Berger Jonathan Henry 0115 Berjohn Catherine M 0106
Bidlack Matthew Scott 0112 Biewenga Eric Donald 0062
Bloir Michael James 0038 Boatwright Robert O 0058
Bower Richard John 0056 Buckalew Elizabeth A 0110
Burke Tshawnda Janell 0070 Burns Carrick T 0122
Cabrera Orlando G 0105 Call Robert C 0126
Campbell Wesley Ray 0050 Carness Jeffrey M 0130
Carter Rachel E 0049 Clark Justin S 0015
Cook Jeffrey T 0064 Cowley Sean Francis* 0005
Cuellar Adrian Manuel 0042 Cunningham Bridget K 0098
Davis Christopher M 0077 Day Justin Lee 0052
Dececchis Daniel P 0030 Donahue Kathleen Marie 0036
Doubrava Matthew R 0007 Driscoll Sean Michael 0087
Dubil Elizabeth Anne 0084 Dupree James Imani 0073
Elenbaum Stephanie L 0083 Ewing John Thomas 0123
Ferguson Candida Ann 0127 Flint James H 0080
Florescarrera Aidith 0121 Foster Daniel A 0017
Garry Conor B 0057 Gaudreau Philip A III 0085
Giberman Anthony Allen 0012 Gliniecki Ross Andrew 0039
Gnandt Ryan Joseph 0107 Goodrich Jennifer Lynn 0099
Goodrich Richard P Jr 0068 Grimm Alan R 0046
Harbuck Andrew W 0081 Hegarty James Loughlin 0104
Helman Christopher D 0066 Henderson Patrick M 0011
Hoagland Benjamin D 0028 Ikeda Daniel Satoshi 0078
Jakubek George Adam 0120 Kerr Jonathan S 0018
Kitchen Levi Kern 0025 Klimaski David John 0020
Klocek Patrick J 0125 Krause Brian R 0027
Kuersteiner Karl A 0034 Lacey Brent Wallace 0124
Lagoski Danielle M 0131 Lammers Arthur K 0097
Legendre Brian Wade 0010 Lennon Robert P 0133
Liebig Jonathan Tyler 0026 Logemann Nicholas F 0111
Lokey Bryce David 0044 Love Rozalyn Grace F 0128
Lowry Debra Magill 0032 Lutynski Matthew L 0117
Mangan Katharine I 0090 Marra Janelle Marie 0113
Matthess Jessica Anne 0086 Mattingly John C 0134
Mcdermott Andrew John* 0006 Mcdonald Christine E 0016
Mcintyre Peter Zachary 0108 Mclaughlin Andrew D 0095
Mcmahon Daniel Patrick 0100 Mercadoabadie Joselyn 0063
Monlux Daniel Joseph 0047 Monteil Danielle C 0072
Moore David Allen* 0002 Moore Jeffrey Lee Jr 0118
Nelson Nicholas Thomas 0014 Oconnell Tara Ann 0103
Odonnell Robert F 0076 Perry Christopher M 0051
Ponton Ryan Patrick 0092 Porensky Paul N 0024
Portier Ray 0033 Potocko Joshua R 0022
Quail Jacob Frank 0132 Ramsey Jeremy Kenneth 0067
Reese Jacalyn H 0059 Restrepo Ryan David 0079
Ries James Patrick 0116 Ruddick Benjamin F 0082
Rustico Stacy E 0094 Rutan Kathryn Lynn* 0001
Schmitz Bruno A 0019 Schollnberger Elle* 0004
Seago Meghan Eileen 0101 Shafer Eric C 0037
Shapiro Bennett Howard 0048 Singaraju Raj C 0054
Smith Dustin Kyle 0075 Snider Tracie C 0114
Souza Jason Manuel 0074 Sracic Michael K 0093
Susmarski Adam James 0129 Swartz Katherine L 0053
Swenson Aaron Welby 0013 Thomas Darren Drew 0029
Touchette David M 0060 Treadwell Robyn M* 0003
Ugochukwu Obinna N 0031 Vaught Eric Robert 0096
Weisbrod Allison B 0071 Welch Rebecca R 0008
Wendt Matthew C 0045 Williams Bradley J 0021
Wonglopez Jaime Albert 0040 Worley Christopher R 0119
Wrenn Katherine Anne 0102 Wu Chai Hui 0091
Zeman Joseph Edward Jr 0109 Zimmerman James L 0041
Dental Corps
Abakah Ricardo M 0009 Adamo Matthew James 0013
Andersen Michael Roy* 0002 Beck Samuel Stephen 0006
Calvo Angel J 0035 Cervenka Peter D 0015
Cuca Chad Eric 0033 Dean Jeffrey Keith 0037
Doll James Kristopher 0025 Eppel Carla Louise 0019
Eppel Todd Andrew 0018 Fuhrmann Daniel Jacob 0034
Grubbs Thomas David 0023 Hamlin Nicholas James 0036
Havard Drew Bourne 0029 Holmes Robert Gary 0005
Hoppe Andrew John 0038 Howard Eric Michael 0016
Johndreau Stephen W 0020 Juliamontanez Maria D 0004
Ligon Kathy Alicia 0027 Lores Gustavo Eugenio 0014
Mushet Broc Allan 0011 Palauhernandez Wilfred 0007
Rasmussen Allen Daniel 0024 Rau Clayton Thomas 0031
Reardon Joseph Neil 0010 Rusthoven David James 0030
Sellers Christopher G* 0003 Smith Michael Anthony 0021
Stoner Robert Douglas 0012 Valeri Arthur Stanley* 0001
Vick James Kyle 0008 Villarreal Eric Dean 0028
Werner Rachel Leigh 0022 Wray Barak Anthony 0026
Zheng Yu 0017
Medical Service Corps
Aldana Alexander 0049 Anderson Jacqueline R 0018
Auth Hak 0053 Behil Matthew Joseph 0007
Brenner Danyell Lynn 0019 Bullman Clinton Wade 0041
Bustamante Sara Marie 0010 Cardenal Raul Ernesto* 0005
Cascardo Neil Douglas 0021 Clifford Heath M* 0001
Dagher Kathleen Ruth 0056 Decker Suzanne Mara 0011
Deguzman Vince Edwards 0027 Delzer Jeffrey Alan* 0003
Domery Michael Edward 0036 Doolittle Corey Nathan 0032
Duff Jason Michael 0020 Ecklund Christofer J 0047
Gardner John J III* 0004 Gire Boyce Randall 0045
Grant Shannon Leigh 0013 Green Vena Christine 0054
Gribben David Brian 0008 Griswold Cheryl A* 0006
Jackson Gretchen S 0043 Jarmer Ryan F 0051
Jordan Byron L 0023 Kang Dean 0038
Lester Bradley Raymond 0035 Lingard Christopher P* 0002
Love Ramaud Deshaun 0026 Macdonald Ann Morgan 0052
Magel Larkin Elizabeth 0050 Mcettrick David M 0012
Mcguinness Ian T 0009 Medina Rudy Durana 0048
Monk Gregory James 0039 Morgan Dario P 0040
Mutuc Emerson Austria 0025 Nilsson Kirt C 0046
Osmond Joseph Egill 0055 Owston Christopher L 0034
Peters Jason Andrew 0031 Phillips Jodi Marie 0042
Pyle Bryan Lincoln 0017 Rabinowitz Yaron 0057
Sood Amit 0022 Stastny Joseph Glenn 0014
Sterns George Herbert 0016 Sutherland Ian W 0029
Tam Francis 0015 Tschauner Suzanne M 0044
Weber Shawn Andrew 0024 Welsh Timothy T 0030
Whitehead Richard A 0033 Wishmeyer Robert James 0037
Judge Advocate General's Corps
Boyle Timothy G 0014 Callan Katherine Ray 0015
Cornthwaite Joshua L 0019 Crabtree Robin Donnell 0007
Davis Bradley Luke 0017 Davis Bryan Michael 0018
Garcia Benjamin B 0020 Goodin John Russell* 0001
Griffo Joseph T* 0002 Haagensen Brian C II 0009
Leahy Andrea Jo 0022 Lindsey Mark A 0003
Mejeur Kevin James 0010 Mosley Mishonda M 0013
Murray Stephen Andrew 0012 Nakamura Byron M 0016
Napier Daniel William 0011 Nelson Eric Scott 0006
Orton Brandi Rae 0021 Snow Garrett Steven 0005
Worstell Katherine D 0008 Zimmerman Delicia G 0004
Nurse Corps
Alvarado Arturo Jr 0028 Barksdale Willie Ray 0027
Bouvier Amy Lyn 0020 Brand George J 0003
Bryant Crystal Anita 0004 Clark Amy Renner 0036
Crane Gabrielle Ann 0024 Cuevas Danielle Kay 0014
Davis Corey Leigh 0038 Edwardssmith Marie F 0029
Ellsworth Tatianna T 0012 Fisher Kim Sue 0026
Flinn Lorelie D 0022 Iannitto Ann Elizabeth 0018
Jones Frank Arthur 0034 Leoncio Abreail Dawn 0031
Maiatico Richard D 0021 Matella Thomas O Jr 0017
Morgan Meedeessa O 0019 Myer Heather J 0037
Nikolaus Aaron D 0015 Orgill Robert 0016
Radakovic Marko 0007 Ray Jeremy Michael 0025
Rebustillo Jonathan F 0030 Romano Gina Denise 0006
Ross Jeffrey Lind 0023 Salinas Dagoberto Jr* 0002
Saltzman Nick Anthony 0008 Solwazi Bettina Ann 0039
Soteras Catherine C 0009 Starnes Hannah C 0033
Sullivan Virginia C 0013 Thomas Devin Corina 0035
Venske Jeremy T 0032 Whiting Timothy G* 0001
Zaycek Amy Partridge 0010 Zuloaga Elizabeth M 0005
Supply Corps
Albert Kevin Lee 0019 Aldridge Austin G 0060
Berkau Matthew M* 0001 Blackburn Warren K 0053
Blevins Diana C 0024 Bono Michael James 0017
Brown Lamont Armond* 0009 Burt Christopher Scott 0049
Bustamante Bryan James 0020 Butler Curtiss 0059
Carideo Jeffrey W 0025 Casey Brendan Thomas 0037
Ceaser Curtis Paul 0057 Christensen Jon Karl* 0007
Christianson Britta W 0028 Chu Hyong Young 0040
Clute Matthew C 0041 Collazos Ricardo A 0010
Craig Marcus Marvin 0034 Cullinan Robert Ryan 0015
Cunningham Victor A* 0002 Custard Jennifer Lynn 0043
Deleon Jason Fortin 0058 Devorse Paul G 0027
Eddy Daniel Joseph 0032 Ekundayo Adesina 0035
Eubanks Lee H 0013 Ewing Danny Lee Jr 0054
Fischer Joshua Steven 0033 Gilmore Kenneth E III 0029
Koenig Noel Kathryn 0047 Krupa Konrad R 0039
Langford Kara Bowman 0050 Lieng Soktheas Scott* 0003
Maazouzi Anas El* 0006 Mccarthy Scott Matthew 0055
Melchert Joshua R* 0005 Miller Grant W 0026
Milliet Scott Robert 0052 Moody Sean Robert 0038
Nguyen Tony Nhat 0012 Osman Jamal Mohamed 0044
Paben Carrie Lynn 0061 Paul Robert W 0056
Rigoni Michael Paul 0045 Robinson Anthony 0018
Roth Geoffrey Franklin 0016 Salire Robert D 0014
Sargent Michael Paul* 0008 Schoenthal Erika M 0011
Schumann Jonathan D 0022 Stephens Wendell K 0042
Summers Brent Lawrence 0048 Taylor Jeremy B 0023
Teague Thomas Patrick 0036 Thomas Marcus E* 0004
Thompson Maura Lee 0030 Tobin Ryan Mcnair 0046
Wheeler Michael Robert 0031 Woodward Nathan T 0051
Young James H 0021
Chaplain Corps
Bareng Ryan B 0014 Bingol Thomas Albert 0009
Cloer Stephen Levi 0015 Coates Gregory Russell 0017
Curtis Daniel Lawrence 0008 Erwin Edward Hamilton 0010
Johnson Robert D 0007 Kleinman Aaron Elliot 0018
Lee Kyu Chang 0012 Martin Christopher S 0002
Myers James Walter Jr 0011 Park Philip Namkyu 0001
Prince Matthew Gene 0016 Rector Karen Jane 0006
Ross Jeffrey J 0013 Sikorski Leszek M 0005
Springer Timothy Allen 0004
Civil Engineer Corps
Allison Aaron Thomas 0013 Archer Christopher W* 0002
Brinkman Travis Duane* 0003 Chitty Patrick Coleman 0008
Dobling Michael L* 0001 Fredriksen Robert A 0015
Holland Stuart Alan 0007 Honek Amy Jean 0016
Johncock James David 0019 Kushner Adam George 0006
Maccumbee Cory David 0012 Mattivi Matthew Marino 0018
Mcilvaine Jacob Ross 0011 Mcmanus Michael John 0010
Mcmaster Danny Brian 0017 Moiles William Edward 0021
Nevin Jeremy Michael 0009 Newsom Donny Roy 0005
Nopkhun Shanewit 0004 Pergerson John Kyle 0020
Whitehouse Kristin B 0014
5. Released by the Honorable Richard V. Spencer, Secretary of the Navy.
BT
#0001
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UNCLASSIFIED//
USUHS School of Medicine Dean’s Annual Faculty Teaching Awards
Nominations for the School of Medicine Dean’s Annual Faculty Teaching Awards are due 15 JUL 2019. If you know of someone deserving of this award, the info on the nomination process is contained in these two documents:
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Here’s a link to this editorial from a former Navy Surgeon General:
Joel Schofer's Career Planning Blog 