personal finance
Finance Friday Articles
- 7 Truths From a Gut-Wrenching Stock Market Crash, One Year Later
- 12 Things to Know About Choosing a Financial Advisor
- Everyone is Using The 4% Rule Wrong
- Retirement Checklist for Physicians
- Second TSP investment manager to be added
- The Simplest Asset to Hedge Against Inflation
- Top 10 Ways to Lower Your Taxes
- We’re All Active Investors
- You have an extra month to file your federal tax returns
Estimate Your Retirement Income Needs
Jonathan Clements was a longtime personal finance columnist for The Wall Street Journal, and he offers great advice at the best price you can get (free) on his blog Humble Dollar. Here is one piece of advice from his site:
“ESTIMATE YOUR RETIREMENT INCOME NEEDS. Take your annual salary. Subtract how much you save each year and pay in Social Security payroll taxes. Also subtract your annual debt payments, including your mortgage—assuming these debts will be paid off by retirement. Result: You’ll know roughly how much you will need each year for a comfortable retirement.”
I’ll take this action one step further. Once you have the rough estimate of how much annual retirement income you need, go to this calculator and figure out how much your military pension will be worth. Then go to this calculator and figure out how much Social Security you’ll get. What is left is what you need to generate with the rest of your investments. Now take that number and divide it by 0.04. That is approximately how much you need to accumulate in your investment accounts to be able to retire.
For example, let’s say you use Mr. Clements’ method and get a number of $120,000/year for a comfortable retirement. The calculators tell you that you will get about a $42,000/year military pension and $18,000/year from Social Security. That leaves $60,000/year you need to generate from your investments. Divide that by 0.04 and you get $1,500,000, which is how much you’d need in your investment accounts to retire.
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- ‘This Is Unprecedented’: Why America’s Housing Market Has Never Been Weirder
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The Basics of Saving for Retirement
Here is a review of the basic principles of investing for retirement:
- Start saving as early as possible because to get rich slowly you need to take advantage of compound interest. Albert Einstein (might have) said, “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it…he who doesn’t pays it.” Compound interest is earning an investment return not just on your initial investment or principle, but also on your previous return. In other words, if you invest $1,000 and earn a 10% return yearly, after the first year you’ll have $1,100. The second year you’ll earn 10% on your initial $1,000, but also on the $100 you earned during the first year, leaving you with $110 of earnings during the second year instead of $100 like the first year. Over a long period of time, this phenomenon greatly increases the amount of money you can accumulate with your investments. Because of this, time spent in the market is much more important than trying to time the market by buying and selling at the right times. The long-term return of the stock market is approximately 9.5% per year. Adjusting for 3% inflation, $1 invested grows to: (Ref: Bogle)
- $1.88 in 10 years
- $3.52 in 20 years
- $6.61 in 30 years
- $12.42 in 40 years
- $23.31 in 50 years
- If you find it difficult to save, set up an automatic investment plan so that the money is automatically removed from your pay and you never get a chance to spend it.
- Investment costs and taxes matter in the long run and will never end; therefore both must be minimized as much as possible. You can minimize both by investing in low-cost stock and bond index funds and maximizing your contributions to tax-preferred retirement accounts.
- Long-term investment in the stock market is the surest way to make your investment grow over time and beat inflation. By owning stocks you own businesses, and the long-term return of these businesses is what will increase your investments and net worth. Trading stocks is not the goal…owning them is.
- As you progress toward retirement, you will decrease your investment risk by decreasing the amount you invest in stocks and increasing the amount you invest in bonds.
- The optimal allocation of investments depends on your age, financial situation, risk tolerance, and how soon you will need to utilize the investment. If you are young, you have longer to ride out the inevitable market swings. The more financially secure you are, the better you can deal with the swings as well. Your asset allocation should also reflect the amount of risk tolerance you have. My opinion is that early in your career you should take as much risk as you can tolerate. If you can’t sleep at night because you are worried about your investments, it is time to dial down the risk, but you should take as much risk as you can up to that point. More risk yields a higher return over the long-term.
- You should utilize dollar cost averaging to decrease your investment risk. Dollar cost averaging is when you purchase the same dollar amount of investments periodically over a long period of time. It provides time diversification, ensuring that you don’t buy all of your investment during a time of temporarily inflated prices. In volatile markets that are going up and down, it will actually increase your investment return because it ensures that you purchase less shares when the investment is expensive, and more when it is cheaper.
- The market will go down, and when it does you need to resist the temptation to sell investments or stop investing. The best time to buy an investment is when it is cheap and you can get the best deal. When the market recovers, which it will, you will reap the rewards. Focus on the long-term and just keep investing.
- Every time you get a raise, bonus, or income tax refund, use it to increase the amount you invest for retirement. You should save at least 15% of your gross or pre-tax income for retirement, but if you want to be rich or retire early you’ll need to save 20-30%.
- How much money will you need to retire? Most retirement planners state that you’ll need approximately 70% of your pre-retirement income to maintain your current standard of living once you retire. This number, though, is heavily dependent on what you consider to be a “good retirement” and what type of a lifestyle you intend to lead. For example, since I save 30% of my gross income for retirement, I’m already living on only 70%, so I highly doubt I’ll need that much when I retire. If you are frugal and pay off your mortgage, you may find that you need as low as 25% of your pre-retirement income to retire comfortably. You won’t be staying in the Ritz Carlton, but there’s nothing wrong with the Hampton Inn.
- There is a lot of uncertainty in life, but the 4% rule is a nice rule of thumb to use when assessing how much money you’ll need to accumulate before you can retire. The 4% rules says that you can take 4% from your retirement savings annually, adjust for inflation each year, and never run out of money. The devil is in the details, but use the 4% rule and assume that you can get approximately $40,000 per year of retirement income from every $1 million you have saved.
- Saving for retirement is your top savings priority, even over funding the college education of your children. You can borrow money to pay for college, but you can’t borrow money to retire.
- You must maximize your contributions to tax-preferred retirement accounts, such as 401(k), 403(b), Simplified Employee Pensions (SEPs), or Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) every year. The tax benefits of these plans are staggering over the long-term: (Ref: Malkiel and Ellis)
- If you invest $5,000 per year over 45 years and earn an 8% return with no taxes paid until withdrawal during retirement, you will have a final portfolio value of over $2 million. If you pay 28% taxes at withdrawal, you’d have almost $1.5 million.
- The same savings without the benefit of tax deferral will top out at about $750,000.
- If you work as an independent contractor you have more options than a physician who works as an employee, so hire an experienced tax or health care attorney, accountant, or fee-only financial planner to set up the best options for retirement investments if you are uncomfortable doing this on your own. It is probably going to be easy, though, and you just need to open of a solo/individual 401k with an investment company.
- NEVER use retirement savings for anything other than retirement unless it is absolutely unavoidable. Again…you can’t borrow money for retirement.
References
Bogle, John C. The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2007.
Malkiel, Burton and Charles Ellis. The Elements of Investing: Easy Lessons for Every Investor. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2013.
Put Retirement First
Jonathan Clements was a longtime personal finance columnist for The Wall Street Journal, and he offers great advice at the best price you can get (free) on his blog Humble Dollar. Here is one piece of advice from his site:
“PUT RETIREMENT FIRST. Are you socking away at least 12% of your pretax income toward retirement, including any matching contribution to your employer’s retirement plan? To amass enough for retirement, you may need to throttle back other financial ambitions, including the size of the house you buy and how much you help your kids with college costs.”
This advice is about two things, savings rate and priorities. First, let’s tackle savings rate.
One of the seminal moments in my financial life occurred when I read the book The Automatic Millionaire by David Bach. In that book was a table that said something like this:
- If you want to be poor and work your entire life, save < 10 percent of your gross or pre-tax income.
- If you want to be normal and retire at a traditional age, save 10-20 percent of your gross or pre-tax income.
- If you want to be rich and retire early, save 20 percent or more of your gross or pre-tax income.
You can probably guess how my story ended…I saved 20 percent. Then I increased by 1 percent every 1-3 months until I hit 30 percent, which has been my savings rate ever since. This is probably the #1 reason I am financially independent. The #2 reason is the value of my military pension.
As Mr. Clements discusses, when you put retirement first it isn’t just about your savings rate, though. It is also about priorities.
You can’t borrow money to retire, therefore you need to max out your retirement savings before you start saving money for your kids’ education.
You need to max out your retirement savings before you buy a house that is larger than you really need.
You need to max out your retirement savings before you pay for private school.
You need to max out your retirement savings before you purchase a new car or a used luxury car.
It’s your life and it’s your retirement. Get your priorities straight and make retirement your #1 financial priority.
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Prepare for a Long Life
Jonathan Clements was a longtime personal finance columnist for The Wall Street Journal, and he offers great advice at the best price you can get (free) on his blog Humble Dollar. Here is one piece of advice from his site:
“PREPARE FOR A LONG LIFE. For a quick gauge of your life expectancy, try Social Security’s calculator. For an in-depth look, use this calculator built on academic research. What will you learn? First, the longer you live, the longer you can expect to live. Second, lifespans vary widely—with educated, health-conscious Americans living three or four years longer than average.”
According to the Social Security calculator above, I’ll live for 81.7 years. According to the in-depth calculator, I’ll live 87.09 years.
What’s the point of all this? Plan for a long retirement by starting to save for retirement now. My grandparents all lived into their late 80s or 90s, so I’ll hopefully outlive these estimates. You might too. And if you have a military pension, you won’t run out of money.
I also wondered if people in the military live longer. Here’s an article that says yes, they do, especially women:
Results
Overall, 67.9 % of RMPs lived longer than average relative to their sex-specific birth cohort. This difference in life expectancy was more pronounced among women than among men.
Calculate Your Required Nest Egg
Jonathan Clements was a longtime personal finance columnist for The Wall Street Journal, and he offers great advice at the best price you can get (free) on his blog Humble Dollar. Here is one piece of advice from his site:
“CALCULATE YOUR REQUIRED NEST EGG. Once retired, you’ll likely have Social Security and perhaps a traditional employer pension. How much additional income will you need for a comfortable retirement? This money will need to come from savings. Take your desired portfolio income, multiply by 25—and you’ll have an estimate for how big a nest egg you need.”
If you stay in for 20 years or more, you’ll have a pension. That pension is very valuable and will greatly reduce the size of your required nest egg. Let’s say you think you need $120,000 per year to retire and you think that between your military pension and Social Security you’ll net $60,000 per year. That leaves another $60,000 you’ll need to generate from your retirement nest egg.
Using Mr. Clements rule above, just take the $60,000 and multiply it by 25, showing that you need to save approximately $1,500,000 to generate the extra $60,000 of retirement income.
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