FY18 Medical Corps Promotion Opportunity 80%

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Here are the just released FY18 Staff Corps promotion board members and convening order, which states that the promotion opportunity is 80%.  Below is the section of my Promo Prep document that explains how promotion board math works, because this does not mean you have an 80% chance of promoting.  That said, it is the highest its been in a long time:

WHAT ARE MY CHANCES OF PROMOTING?

See the tables below for the actual promotion statistics.

  FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
LCDR 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%  
CDR 80% 80% 70% 70% 65%  
CAPT 60% 60% 60% 50% 70% 80%

Promotion opportunity.  This percentage is multiplied by the zone size to give the number of officers to be selected for promotion.  For example, if the promotion opportunity is 60% and there are 100 officers in-zone, then 60 will be selected for promotion.  This 60, however, may come from officers who are below-zone, in-zone, or above-zone.  For example, maybe 50 of the 60 are in-zone, and 10 are above-zone.  That is why the percentage of people in-zone who are selected for promotion is always lower than the promotion opportunity.  See below…

  FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
LCDR 97% 89% 90% 93% 88%  
CDR 58% 66% 49% 53% 44%  
CAPT 55% 43% 47% 39% 34%  

Actual percentage of in-zone candidates selected for promotion.

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